2019 and Obasanjo’s threat (2)

Aliyu Musa

Since writing his damning but not totally unexpected letter in January 2018, Obasanjo scarcely misses the opportunity to attack Buhari’s government. He has accused the government of incompetence and the president of ineptitude and nepotism. He has also accused the president of diverting the most important security positions in his government to the north and of being insensitive to the killings going on in the country, allegedly perpetrated by Fulani herdsmen, the president’s kinsmen.

When Obasanjo fired the first salvo, it was expected that President Buhari’s media team would respond. But the presidency shocked everyone, particularly Obasanjo, by simply ignoring him for some days. And when the response came, it was a polite reminder to the former president that, despite his criticisms, the government has some achievements to it credit. The achievements were listed out by the information minister, Dr Lai Mohammed.

Last week, under the aegis of Foundation for Good Governance in Nigeria (FGGN), I, alongside four colleagues, had the opportunity of meeting the president during his visit to London to see his doctor. In a brief encounter in his lodge he told us why he initially didn’t want to respond to Chief Obasanjo’s tirade. According to him, when his special adviser on media, Femi Adesina, came to him to say he wanted to reply the former president, he told him not to. He said because Adesina is much younger than him (Buhari) and Obasanjo, he did not want to him be involved in the matter. He also said, given that Adesina, was from the same constituency as Obasanjo, it could have a consequence on Adesina.

But when Dr Mohammed came to him and explained what he wanted to do, the president said he reasoned with him and let him. The outcome was impressive, because President Buhari said he received calls from people commending the government for the constructive response. I personally think it was a brilliant one! Obasanjo, with the way he has carried on with attacks on the government and Buhari, was hoping for a dirty fight. So far, the president has refused to let him have his way. This is disappointing to Obasanjo, I believe, which is why he has refused to relent, promising to kick the president out of power, the way he brought him in.

But Chief Obasanjo, methinks, is mistaken. Like I mentioned last week the former president played an important role in President Buhari’s victory, but it was not sufficient to bring him to power, as the former president claims. He has, clearly, exaggerated his importance because, while he is strategically influential he is does not have the numerical influence to singlehandedly decide who comes to power or who does not. He, no doubt, contributed significantly to Jonathan’s defeat in 2015. But Mr Jonathan’s tumble from power was only waiting to happen. So, Obasanjo only acted as a catalyst.

Besides, despite repeatedly threatening the president and the ruling party Chief Obasanjo has been unable to put in place the political machinery that can realistically dislodge the ruling party and, especially, candidate Buhari in 2019. This is in spite of the inability of the president to meet the expectations of most of those who supported him in 2015.

With the election only months away, the opposition PDP is yet to put its house in order. It has yet to come to terms with its defeat and, therefore, it’s unable to decide how best to tackle the ruling APC. The other opposition parties, practically, do not have the clout to dislodge the ruling party and Buhari, at the minute. Obasanjo’s talks with Chief Olu Falae’s SDP has since fallen through and the former president’s National Intervention Movement (NIM) has only succeeded in raising plenty of dust, but has now calmed down, without any prompting. So how does Chief Obasanjo hope to defeat an incumbent President Buhari?

Obasanjo’s privileged access to strategic information was what Buhari needed in 2015 to bring down Goodluck Jonathan’s already crumbling government. And this, alone, explains why Jonathan should not have shot himself in the foot by openly and impolitely paying back Obasanjo, when the letter wrote a similarly damning letter about his (Jonathan’s) regime. Not that ignoring Obasanjo would have solved the problem, as it were. But it would have given him no ammunition to ferociously tear the regime to shreds, like he did by strategically helping the APC campaign team to counter every move the former President Jonathan, with his loyalists in PDP, made.

At least that support helped to put the pressure on the PDP and Jonathan’s withering power. And, although they did not want to go into an election they were doubtlessly unprepared for, they were nonetheless forced. The only time they controlled the situation was when they, with the help of the then National Security Adviser (NSA) Sambo Dasuki and support from service chiefs, blackmailed the Professor Attahiru Jega-led Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) into postponing the election by six weeks. That, still, did not stop the impending defeat they were eventually handed.

Candidate Buhari is, presently, the only candidate with a realistic chance of winning the 2019 election. Other candidates may only be able to send a message; one that may not take them beyond the actualisation of their dream of merely contesting. But the situation could change if, for instance, all the other parties form a powerful coalition and present one candidate. But it’s a remote possibility because time is fast running and they would hardly be able to convince all the various political ‘heavyweights’ jostling for the president’s job to dump their ambition.

So, regardless of Obasanjo’s threat and ceaseless attacks, Buhari could coast to victory, once again, in 2019.

(Concluded)

This article was published in the Blueprint newspaper of Saturday, May 19, 2018.