By Aliyu Musa
With total delight I recently read Dr Aliyu Tilde’s piece ‘To Niger In Search of Aisha’ in which he narrated the outstanding improvements Nigeria’s neighbour to the North has recorded over the past few years. Previously, one’s attention was often drawn to ‘begging bowls’ stretched out by the country considered one of Africa’s poorest asking for handouts on which she might survive. Famine and dying humans and animals have long been used to symbolise Niger. I vividly recall Muhammadu Gawo Fillinge’s songs, which I first heard as a kid in the 1970s, emphatically conveying a message of urgency to save Niger. I always pitied Nigeriens, hundreds of whom lived in my community. They were always the ‘maigadis’ (security guards to the better off Nigerians), the ‘yan garuwas’ (water vendors), the ‘maishayis’ (local tea vendors) etc. Once they owned a bakery in my street and, during the brief period it survived, life became much more comfortable for those scores of ‘yan garuwa’ and ‘maishayis’ who thronged and sought solace under the umbrella it provided. But the bakery was among the first victims of President Shehu Shagari’s austerity measure as prices of almost all essentials (in addition to scarcity) took a sudden flight to the skies rendering such small businesses effectively dead. That sent many of them back to the streets, again, and to the inglorious mockery of many of our countrymen. But, from Dr Tilde’s article, it seems Niger is no longer that Africa’s weeping child and her citizens would, by right, be treated with more respect perhaps for the first time. And what a paradox, Niger is set to be one of Nigeria’s oil suppliers!
Again, there is the story of Ghana whose citizens swarmed our villages and cities in the late 1970s and 1980s seeking greener pastures. They were in every profession or trade as could readily be available; they were our shoe menders or cobblers, bread hawkers, taxi drivers and even teachers. I once had a private teacher, Mr Fringpong, who could teach virtually every subject. I still consider myself quite lucky to have been his student as his tutorials gave the sort of head start that would prepare me for later academic and professional challenges. But he was one of thousands of foreigners given the marching order by the government of General Muhammadu Buhari in 1984. Even as a die-hard supporter of General Buhari that is one policy I still can’t understand and might never do. Sadly. I remember how many of them hurriedly packed their bits and pieces in carry bags that were later renamed ‘Ghana Must Go’ by Nigerians in mockery of their plight. Many sold off whatever they could not take along at give away prices. Benbella, a neighbour gladly told of how he bought a 14-inch colour television at 50 naira. It was an excellent bargain for him, but 50 naira was also quite some money to be taken back to Ghana then, given the higher exchange value of Nigeria’s naira to Ghana’s cedi. The last I heard of Mr Fringpong was that they had been taken in by Libya’s Muammar Ghadafi. Our loss was indeed Libya’s gain. However, Ghana has since made a big come back and can no longer be bullied by big sister Nigeria. It is such a big shame that our politicians (and big men) now flock Ghanaian hospitals for treatment and send their children to their schools after collapsing our own. Ghana will probably join the list of our oil suppliers soon enough.
Cameroun is another country whose citizens considered Nigeria a sanctuary. The country is polarised on the basis of such silly sentiments as the foreign (colonial) language spoken by those in one part as opposed to the one spoken in the other. And because those speaking French in the south of the country are in power by means of Paul Biya’s overspent presidency, the English speakers in the north are, in effect, marginalised. Many ran off to Nigeria at a time they badly needed a home, but they were let down by their hosts. The list of those we have let down in the most bizarre manner is endless.
One would be very unfair to continue to suggest that Nigeria has been a very bad sisters’ keeper. No. Working on the premise that she could disentangle the continent from the vestiges of colonialism (and checkmate imperialism) there were quite a few times she demonstrated rare altruism, at least on the surface. One of such was her involvement in South Africa’s anti-apartheid campaign by directly funding the African National Congress (ANC). Nigeria defied every risk to solidly stand by Robert Mugabe’s Zimbabwe and Sam Nujoma’s South West Africa People’s Organisation (SWAPO, in Namibia) in their fight for independence. For instance she supported SWAPO with up to US $20 million in its preparation for independence in 1989. Nigeria was the main African backer to frontline states like Zambia, Tanzania, Mozambique and Zimbabwe that constantly faced threats from the Pretoria regime. In terms of peacekeeping operations, more than any other African country Nigeria contributes troops. Thus, her earliest participation was in the Congo crisis of the early 1960s. Since then she has played a major role in transforming the conflicts in Sierra Leone, Liberia, Cote d’Ivoire, Ethiopia, Eritrea and Western Sahara. In fact for her role in the conflict in Sierra Leone, despite Britain stealing the shine off her, most Sierra Leoneans still speak glowingly of her. In Liberia’s renewed conflict shortly before Charles Taylor was tricked into stepping aside in 2003, Nigeria it was that first put her troops in Monrovia to deescalate the violence. The US would not put a single soldier at such risk; they waited for Nigeria to clear the bush.
Several years on, Nigeria, plagued by myriads of upheavals, is now Africa’s ‘sick old woman’ in urgent need of a new lease of life. In 2004 I read an article published by a South African newspaper in which Nigeria was likened to a ‘hell on earth’ from which everyone hopes to make a great escape. Contrast the situation then to all that is happening now you’ll have a picture of a much, much better place eight years ago. I won’t cease to wonder what analogy the author of that article would apply today, taking into consideration the state of Nigeria now. But this is not a matter that calls for laughter. Nor is it one that should be treated with levity. What still shocks me is that African leaders still pretend that the contagious effect theory is a ruse in politics. Perhaps they need to scroll back their memory to the events of the early 1960s. Scholars of African Politics had erroneously assumed that with the return to self rule Africa was a showcase of democracy. But a few like Samuel Huntington and S. E. Finer still thought it was too early to rule out the possibility of military encroachment. Such scholars emphasised the wisdom in diarchy and/or military professionalism. The overthrow of Togo’s Sylvanus Epiphanio Olympio on January 13, 1963 confirmed the latter group’s worse fears. And it set the stage for more military ousting of democratically elected governments, a development that scholars of Military in Politics describe as the contagious effect theory (or what I call the copycat blitz). In Nigeria, the government of Sir Abubakar Tafawa Balewa was sacked by dissident soldiers, an action that was celebrated by Ghana’s Dr Kwame Nkrumah who granted fugitive Major Emmanuel Ifeajuna refuge in his country. The same fate was to befall Nkrumah shortly as soldiers swept power off his feet. The contagious effect theory is therefore not just an academic jargon that could be dismissed by the wave of one’s hand. It is for real.
These days are unmistakably Nigeria’s toughest in her entire history. The Boko Haram issue is the biggest challenge of the moment. But threats from the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND), the Odua People’s Congress (OPC), the Movement for the Actualisation of the Sovereign State of Biafra (MASSOB) and many other pockets of disorderliness are real. Infrastructures have all collapsed while the only active business is corrupt enrichment by public officers and their cronies. There is no gainsaying the government of President Goodluck Jonathan is too weak to handle all or even any of these challenges. In a few years to come, if the steady slide continues, Nigeria might become history.
If Nigeria collapses fact is she might not go down alone. She might drag down so many countries with her and that is why the contagious effect theory needs to be studied carefully to understand the symptoms and antidotes of this possibility. Already Boko Haram fighters are in Mali where separatist soldiers are giving the junta of Captain Amadu Sanogo sleepless nights. If no one acts to save the country they might soon overrun the junta and carve out a whole enclave of their own, which could make a lot of difference to their campaign. In Cameroun, there have been reports of their activities in the north. Perhaps that might be accelerated as Nigeria moves closer to the brink. For instance the north, which sees itself as more of Nigeria, could decide to break away from the south to either form a country of its own or join hands with the north-east of Nigeria to create one. Other countries like Niger, Chad, Ghana, Burkina Faso, Guinea and Gabon and so on, won’t be entirely immune. At the minute although one can only speculate, it is doubtful that any widespread horrendous impact would not result from an implosion in Nigeria as the current trend points to. But the big issue is how to stop this from happening.
In my recent article on the Boko Haram crisis in Nigeria I suggested three major actions that need to be taken to stem the situation: negotiation with the intent of making reasonable/responsible concessions; active grassroots regeneration especially targeting youths; and proper and purposeful dispensation of justice/equity. Things have not changed to warrant a change of view. But I would add here that, as a matter of urgency African leaders need to convene a meeting and appropriately act on the disturbing drift of Nigeria vis-à-vis other security challenges on the continent. A failed Nigeria could be the hydra-headed monster that would collapse the entire continent. Ignore this warning at our own peril.
With total delight I recently read Dr Aliyu Tilde’s piece ‘To Niger In Search of Aisha’ in which he narrated the outstanding improvements Nigeria’s neighbour to the North has recorded over the past few years. Previously, one’s attention was often drawn to ‘begging bowls’ stretched out by the country considered one of Africa’s poorest asking for handouts on which she might survive. Famine and dying humans and animals have long been used to symbolise Niger. I vividly recall Muhammadu Gawo Fillinge’s songs, which I first heard as a kid in the 1970s, emphatically conveying a message of urgency to save Niger. I always pitied Nigeriens, hundreds of whom lived in my community. They were always the ‘maigadis’ (security guards to the better off Nigerians), the ‘yan garuwas’ (water vendors), the ‘maishayis’ (local tea vendors) etc. Once they owned a bakery in my street and, during the brief period it survived, life became much more comfortable for those scores of ‘yan garuwa’ and ‘maishayis’ who thronged and sought solace under the umbrella it provided. But the bakery was among the first victims of President Shehu Shagari’s austerity measure as prices of almost all essentials (in addition to scarcity) took a sudden flight to the skies rendering such small businesses effectively dead. That sent many of them back to the streets, again, and to the inglorious mockery of many of our countrymen. But, from Dr Tilde’s article, it seems Niger is no longer that Africa’s weeping child and her citizens would, by right, be treated with more respect perhaps for the first time. And what a paradox, Niger is set to be one of Nigeria’s oil suppliers!
Again, there is the story of Ghana whose citizens swarmed our villages and cities in the late 1970s and 1980s seeking greener pastures. They were in every profession or trade as could readily be available; they were our shoe menders or cobblers, bread hawkers, taxi drivers and even teachers. I once had a private teacher, Mr Fringpong, who could teach virtually every subject. I still consider myself quite lucky to have been his student as his tutorials gave the sort of head start that would prepare me for later academic and professional challenges. But he was one of thousands of foreigners given the marching order by the government of General Muhammadu Buhari in 1984. Even as a die-hard supporter of General Buhari that is one policy I still can’t understand and might never do. Sadly. I remember how many of them hurriedly packed their bits and pieces in carry bags that were later renamed ‘Ghana Must Go’ by Nigerians in mockery of their plight. Many sold off whatever they could not take along at give away prices. Benbella, a neighbour gladly told of how he bought a 14-inch colour television at 50 naira. It was an excellent bargain for him, but 50 naira was also quite some money to be taken back to Ghana then, given the higher exchange value of Nigeria’s naira to Ghana’s cedi. The last I heard of Mr Fringpong was that they had been taken in by Libya’s Muammar Ghadafi. Our loss was indeed Libya’s gain. However, Ghana has since made a big come back and can no longer be bullied by big sister Nigeria. It is such a big shame that our politicians (and big men) now flock Ghanaian hospitals for treatment and send their children to their schools after collapsing our own. Ghana will probably join the list of our oil suppliers soon enough.
Cameroun is another country whose citizens considered Nigeria a sanctuary. The country is polarised on the basis of such silly sentiments as the foreign (colonial) language spoken by those in one part as opposed to the one spoken in the other. And because those speaking French in the south of the country are in power by means of Paul Biya’s overspent presidency, the English speakers in the north are, in effect, marginalised. Many ran off to Nigeria at a time they badly needed a home, but they were let down by their hosts. The list of those we have let down in the most bizarre manner is endless.
One would be very unfair to continue to suggest that Nigeria has been a very bad sisters’ keeper. No. Working on the premise that she could disentangle the continent from the vestiges of colonialism (and checkmate imperialism) there were quite a few times she demonstrated rare altruism, at least on the surface. One of such was her involvement in South Africa’s anti-apartheid campaign by directly funding the African National Congress (ANC). Nigeria defied every risk to solidly stand by Robert Mugabe’s Zimbabwe and Sam Nujoma’s South West Africa People’s Organisation (SWAPO, in Namibia) in their fight for independence. For instance she supported SWAPO with up to US $20 million in its preparation for independence in 1989. Nigeria was the main African backer to frontline states like Zambia, Tanzania, Mozambique and Zimbabwe that constantly faced threats from the Pretoria regime. In terms of peacekeeping operations, more than any other African country Nigeria contributes troops. Thus, her earliest participation was in the Congo crisis of the early 1960s. Since then she has played a major role in transforming the conflicts in Sierra Leone, Liberia, Cote d’Ivoire, Ethiopia, Eritrea and Western Sahara. In fact for her role in the conflict in Sierra Leone, despite Britain stealing the shine off her, most Sierra Leoneans still speak glowingly of her. In Liberia’s renewed conflict shortly before Charles Taylor was tricked into stepping aside in 2003, Nigeria it was that first put her troops in Monrovia to deescalate the violence. The US would not put a single soldier at such risk; they waited for Nigeria to clear the bush.
Several years on, Nigeria, plagued by myriads of upheavals, is now Africa’s ‘sick old woman’ in urgent need of a new lease of life. In 2004 I read an article published by a South African newspaper in which Nigeria was likened to a ‘hell on earth’ from which everyone hopes to make a great escape. Contrast the situation then to all that is happening now you’ll have a picture of a much, much better place eight years ago. I won’t cease to wonder what analogy the author of that article would apply today, taking into consideration the state of Nigeria now. But this is not a matter that calls for laughter. Nor is it one that should be treated with levity. What still shocks me is that African leaders still pretend that the contagious effect theory is a ruse in politics. Perhaps they need to scroll back their memory to the events of the early 1960s. Scholars of African Politics had erroneously assumed that with the return to self rule Africa was a showcase of democracy. But a few like Samuel Huntington and S. E. Finer still thought it was too early to rule out the possibility of military encroachment. Such scholars emphasised the wisdom in diarchy and/or military professionalism. The overthrow of Togo’s Sylvanus Epiphanio Olympio on January 13, 1963 confirmed the latter group’s worse fears. And it set the stage for more military ousting of democratically elected governments, a development that scholars of Military in Politics describe as the contagious effect theory (or what I call the copycat blitz). In Nigeria, the government of Sir Abubakar Tafawa Balewa was sacked by dissident soldiers, an action that was celebrated by Ghana’s Dr Kwame Nkrumah who granted fugitive Major Emmanuel Ifeajuna refuge in his country. The same fate was to befall Nkrumah shortly as soldiers swept power off his feet. The contagious effect theory is therefore not just an academic jargon that could be dismissed by the wave of one’s hand. It is for real.
These days are unmistakably Nigeria’s toughest in her entire history. The Boko Haram issue is the biggest challenge of the moment. But threats from the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND), the Odua People’s Congress (OPC), the Movement for the Actualisation of the Sovereign State of Biafra (MASSOB) and many other pockets of disorderliness are real. Infrastructures have all collapsed while the only active business is corrupt enrichment by public officers and their cronies. There is no gainsaying the government of President Goodluck Jonathan is too weak to handle all or even any of these challenges. In a few years to come, if the steady slide continues, Nigeria might become history.
If Nigeria collapses fact is she might not go down alone. She might drag down so many countries with her and that is why the contagious effect theory needs to be studied carefully to understand the symptoms and antidotes of this possibility. Already Boko Haram fighters are in Mali where separatist soldiers are giving the junta of Captain Amadu Sanogo sleepless nights. If no one acts to save the country they might soon overrun the junta and carve out a whole enclave of their own, which could make a lot of difference to their campaign. In Cameroun, there have been reports of their activities in the north. Perhaps that might be accelerated as Nigeria moves closer to the brink. For instance the north, which sees itself as more of Nigeria, could decide to break away from the south to either form a country of its own or join hands with the north-east of Nigeria to create one. Other countries like Niger, Chad, Ghana, Burkina Faso, Guinea and Gabon and so on, won’t be entirely immune. At the minute although one can only speculate, it is doubtful that any widespread horrendous impact would not result from an implosion in Nigeria as the current trend points to. But the big issue is how to stop this from happening.
In my recent article on the Boko Haram crisis in Nigeria I suggested three major actions that need to be taken to stem the situation: negotiation with the intent of making reasonable/responsible concessions; active grassroots regeneration especially targeting youths; and proper and purposeful dispensation of justice/equity. Things have not changed to warrant a change of view. But I would add here that, as a matter of urgency African leaders need to convene a meeting and appropriately act on the disturbing drift of Nigeria vis-à-vis other security challenges on the continent. A failed Nigeria could be the hydra-headed monster that would collapse the entire continent. Ignore this warning at our own peril.
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