APC-nPDP merger and opposition political capital (1)

Aliyu Musa

The crisis in the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) Tuesday took a turn for the worse following the defection of five of its seven estranged governors. But whether this marks the beginning of the end of the party that has dominated Nigeria’s political landscape since a return to civil rule 14 years ago remains to be seen. However, whether the party takes this as a massage that its influence is now hugely withering by this exit or not, the reality is politics is a game of numbers, and taking out a large chunk of what used to be its safe ground is a major concern.

In its characteristic arrogance the party has claimed at various times through its nonchalant officials that, come what may, it would rule till eternity. That would not be a problem, if Nigerians were happy with it and were willing to stand by it. But as it always was, it was perhaps hoping to take advantage of the incongruities that previously helped it return to power.

The 2010 general elections went down in the annals of history as so far the most polarized in the country. Pigheadedly bent on retaining power especially at the centre, the ruling party employed every foul means. State resources and apparatuses of violence were recklessly used to achieve this goal. What mattered then (and always) was the interest of a few, who arrogated themselves the power to mould the destiny of the people and country into whatever form or shape they wished. And those who opposed in any way were either coerced into compromise and blackmail into conspiratorial silence.

But what results from all this is that many of the principal actors in that mafia-like power game are today victims of the same plot they hatched against others. Many have fallen out with the party and the man they investment so much to support and hurt too many too frequently, often unjustly, to install. I recall how the Congress for Progressive Change’s (CPC) campaign train was humiliated when it took its canvass for votes to Adamawa. In none of the states whose governors are now into this merger with All Progressives Congress did the CPC flag bearer, who is today a leading figure of the APC, get a level playing field.

Maybe, that was why some of the G7 governors chose to realistically weigh the option of the merger and opted out for now. Besides, their main bellyache is not because the country is not properly governed and that the people are not reaping the fruits of democracy. It is purely an in-group interest, linked directly to whom amongst them becomes the next president of the country.

But for President Jonathan’s clear show of mediocrity it would not matter if he came back rather than any of them. Even as it would be suicidal for the country to not find a replacement for him, those currently jostling for his position, especially among the estranged governors, do not fit into the person specification, evidently.

Nigeria, at this intersection it finds itself, does not need some bunch of opportunistic ethnic jingoist or politicians, whose ego is too bloated to let them reason beyond their interests if it is really keen on getting out of the woods. And the people must realize that simply defecting from one party to another following disagreements over sharing the spoils of office does not transform just anyone into a progressive. Sadly, the adjective ‘progressive’ has been traumatically subjected to abuse that it has lost its meaning and value. And that is why anyone could bravely refer to himself as one, irrespective of his past or what people think of him.

This, however, does not mean that there is no possibility of something coming out of the ACP merger with the five PDP governors. As was earlier mentioned, numbers are an important political capital, which these defectors are definitely coming with to further strengthen the opposition and make future contests fairer – although this is highly dependent on the appendage role Professor Attahiru Jega’s Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and the police play.

Postscript:

This article has been published in the Blueprint newspaper of 29/11/2013.