Egypt’s return to Mubarak’s days

Aliyu Musa

Egypt’s was the most inspiring change the Arab Spring of 2011 brought to a part of the world notorious for sit-tight leadership. Despite the unswerving support Hosni Mubarak enjoyed from powerful Western allies his regime suddenly crumbled after 30 years of relentless dictatorship when armless Egyptians conquered fear and pulled the rug off his feet. That change became the real standards for further changes in the country and across the Arab world. But that, perhaps, was the end of the happy story.

The journey back to the dark days all began less than a year after the first democratic elections that brought Mohammed Morsi, a Muslim Brotherhood-backed candidate to power. In the short time he ruled the country he had become so unpopular that the same mammoth crowd that saw off Mubarak had started congregating at Tarih Square to kick him out too. And in doing so they had, once again, hoped on the military to intervene. But the military had their own agenda, part of which is now unfolding.

That Egypt is in turmoil today does not come as a surprise. History is meant to serve as a reminder of the past, an interpreter of the present and a signpost to the future. A country that is in the same region with Algeria and a neighbour to Libya needs no better examples to learn lessons from. Algeria went the same way and learnt a very bitter lesson. Libya is learning the hard way too.

In a commentary published in the Blueprint newspaper of July 5, 2013 following the military’s disgraceful rape of democracy, which was shamefully backed by the world’s so-called proponents of equity and fair play I jiggled our memory back to the events that followed the callous thwart of the democratic process in Algeria, the anarchy that followed and warned that similar grave consequences could trail the opportunistic action of General (now Field Marshall) Abdel Fattah el-Sissi and his men. I wrote:

“In December 1991 Algeria’s coalition of Islamist groups, the Front Islamique du Salut (FIS), constituted such a formidable political force that it clearly dominated the first round of elections in the country and was set to win the second. But authorities, utterly wary of handing over power to an Islamist government, scuttled the democratic process and banned FIS. That was the trigger for a civil insurgency that lasted nearly six years and cost no fewer than 100, 000 lives.

“The sack Wednesday of Egypt’s first democratically elected government is monumental enough to joggle one’s memory back to the events of the early 1990s in neighbouring Algeria and associated chain of events. It also leaves one wondering loudly if democracy, as it is widely understood, has any relevance in government in non-Western societies...The big issue is whether they (Morsi’s supporters) would accept his removal as an expression of the wish of the ‘people’ without putting up a fight now or later, as was seen in the case of FIS in Algeria.”

Egyptians are not new to brute repression; the Muslim Brotherhood has paid a price. el-Sissi’s brutal use of force has led to several deaths already, as he deludingly lays claim to a ‘mandate’ to clear the scene of Morsi’s unruly supporters. But the Muslim Brotherhood will not give up Morsi’s mandate so easily, even in the face of unprecedented human rights trampling.

In the meantime Morsi languishes in jail and faces trial on various charges, some of which carry the death penalty. If he is convicted, which is highly likely, he may face the hangman. But, again, that will not de-escalate the violence.

Now that el-Sissi warms up to stand in the forthcoming presidential race, for which he already has the full weight of the country’s Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) behind him, the cleverly crafted plot is clearer. Egypt is heading back to Mubarak’s days regardless of the show trial he and his sons face. He is certainly not going to the gallows nor will he face the marksmen. He is unblemished regardless of whatever others think.

But like I warned last year the biggest losers are the people, who have only successfully reversed their victory. Without any doubt el-Sissi would win the elections. He would continue in power and would ruthlessly suppress all forms of dissent, not only from Morsi’s supporters. And for another decade or longer it would be a replay of Mubarak’s days.