ISIS and the changing face of Middle East

Aliyu Musa

In an interview published in Lebanon’s as-Safir newspaper in March 2003, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad warned that the invasion of Iraq by the US-led military alliance would ultimately boomerang, resulting in a popular Arab resistance which would force the Americans and their allies out of Iraq. President al-Assad had warned, in the run up to the invasion, that attacking Iraq would devastate the entire region and cause widespread frustrations across the Arab world. More than a decade after the invasion the war has yet to be been won, but Iraq is far worse off than it was under Saddam Hussein’s rule. And the Middle East is crumbling too.

Among the numerous backlashes of the invasion is the rise of the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIS), which appears to be effectively dislodging the US-installed Shia regime and carrying out revenge killings on Shia Muslims in Iraq. ISIS, which now controls large swathes of territory stretching from western Iraq to eastern Syria, is an inevitable, maybe not directly intended, product of several aggressive policies of both the Shia-dominated Iraqi regime and its foreign backers.

In making a case for the invasion, one of the accusations the former US President George W Bush levelled against the then Iraqi President Saddam Hussein was that he was harbouring terrorists. But it was later established the al-Qaeda only found its way into Iraq after the invasion and fall of Baghdad.

The invasion had faced little resistance from the Iraqi forces. But on entering Iraq the US-led coalition disbanded Iraq’s military, an act that rendered the country defenceless and provided unrestricted access for foreign forces and all manners of intruders, including the al-Qaeda, to operate. And it suffices to argue that, several years after the killing of al-Qaeda’s founding leader in Iraq, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the ISIS has emerged from the rubbles of post-Saddam Hussein Iraq.

But unlike al-Qaeda or even al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) ISIS is militarily pragmatic and well aware of how it can maximise it strengths. And one of its strengths is in uniting the disgruntled Sunnis in Iraq and Syria (and elsewhere) to support its cause. Its success in the last one year has been amazing, the climax of which was last week’s capture of Mosul, the northern Iraq capital as it headed to Baghdad.

In Baghdad politicians and ordinary residents take ISIS’s threat seriously. While many of the residents have filtered to safety, politicians across sectarian divides are bracing up for a fight. Iraq has already taken delivery of five Sukhoi Su-25 fighter jets from Russia to boost its dilapidated arsenal.

But ISIS’s threat is real. Under its leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, aka Abu Dua, it declared a caliphate or an Islamic State only a few days ago. It is now ambitiously seeking to spread it influence to other parts of the region, and it is only a matter of time before it reaches countries like Turkey, Jordan and Saudi Arabia, unless practical steps are taken to stop it.

Meanwhile, what will continue to resonate in discussions about the group and its bid to overrun and change the face of the Middle East is the role the American-led invasion and unwarranted interference has played in its emergence. It is doubtlessly a by-product of the 2003 mess and similar policies since then.

Bombs everywhere

Last week’s bomb attack on Emab Plaza in Abuja came as a shocker to many of us not because it was the first of its kind in the city but because it came nearer than we had expected. For many of us who lost family members, friends or colleagues it was even more shocking. Malam Sulaiman Bisalla, a former colleague at Media Trust, was one of one the victims. My cousin, Shuaibu Adamu Baba, who came from Minna on the day to submit a business proposal missed death by a whisker when he went to photocopy a document. But his driver died while he waited for him in the car. Many weren’t lucky too. So, for many Nigerians, the value of life continues to suffer a huge plunge as terrorists intensify their killing spree and the government enjoys unabashed docility. These terrorists certainly have no heart. But they have found a convenient ambience to act the way they do because politicians, rather than pursue the business of governance with complete commitment, dissipate essential resources in tackling political rivals. So, while the bombings go on Nigerians have no choice but to learn to live with them and be very vigilant. And as we used to say in the days of Boy Scouts: ‘Be prepared’. May God protect our people and save our country. God bless Nigeria.

Postscript:

This piece was written on 3 July 2014.