Nigeria at 56: agony of overgrown toddler (1)

Today Nigeria is 56 and, like a fully-grown person, should normally not still be toddling. But that has not been the case. It is still wrapped in its sleepsuit and coiled in its cot, taking a deep nap, cuddled by countless traitors, endlessly working hard to make it to never get on its feet. Poor country, poor people!

After many years of failed attempts last year’s seemed like a break from tradition: alas a People’s Bloodless Revolution had brought a People’s General to Power. And with the People’s General in Power Nigeria’s full potentials would be realised in no time, so many thought. But not many factored in those faceless, formidable spanner throwers and that’s a tragic oversight.

I need no introduction as a staunch supporter of President Muhammadu Buhari right from the days of his repeated unsuccessful bids up until his success in the 2015 presidential election. That I have been completely silent in recent months does not in any way suggest a shift from that stance nor is it a total endorsement of many of the happenings since the then opposition APC swept power off the feet of the then ruling, all-powerful and seemingly invincible PDP. This commentary, therefore, is what I consider a fair assessment of the regime and some words of advice as Nigeria toddles on, at 56.

Let me acknowledge the huge support the people of Edo State gave the ruling party with the election of its candidate, Godwin Obaseki in the governorship election last Wednesday. It is victory not just for Governor-elect Obaseki but also for his predecessor Governor Adams Oshiomole and President Buhari and, indeed, further endorsement of APC, regardless of all that’s happening and the relentless efforts of enemies within and without.

When Nigerians resoundingly elected the party last year, without doubt, they wanted to get rid of the then overspent and arrogant PDP. They also, in particular, trusted the APC to clean up the humongous mess the PDP bequeathed every parts and aspects of the system. Of course many were overambitious in their assumptions and expectations but the reality was Nigerians badly wanted change and believed APC represented that change so they overwhelmingly voted for its candidates, starting with candidate Buhari.

Buhari is, doubtlessly, a man of integrity. And in my estimation and of millions of Nigerians his integrity remains intact. And this, possibly, explains why many Nigerians still believe their change is not lost in the pandemonium of the dirty power play that characterises our political system.

But the honest truth is things have not been as smooth as many expected. Many reasons account for this. First, like I mentioned earlier Nigerians exaggerated their expectations. And that reminds me of touch-and-go, a treatment for toothache I loved to ‘bits’ as a kid.

If you were ever afflicted with a toothache and had touch-and-go administered to it and the pain suddenly vanished you would understand why I said we exaggerated our expectations. Back then I always had toothaches and touch-and-go often killed the nasty ache but there were occasions that it didn’t work at all even though I totally trusted it and didn’t expect to be let down. But it often didn’t take me too long to realise that my toothache needed the touch of a dentist and not the temporary relief of touch-and-go because it was clearly beyond it.

Nigerians totally trusted that President Buhari’s touch would be magical but completely forgot that Nigeria’s decay is monumental, unprecedented and resistant to solutions because those responsible for it are indefatigably remote-controlling the process, throwing spanners at every opportunity. They also forgot that for their desired change to happen, in spite of these moles’ drawbacks, there’s bound to be more sufferings and sacrifices (I know this talk of sacrifice has generated a lot of heat, so I will come back to it). They forgot that the moles are stubbornly fighting a fight to finish and won’t so easily concede defeat and, so, defeating them would requite unparalleled valour and resilience.

Nigerians, one must acknowledge with fairness, have endured a lot but our suffering, this time out, is not the worst in our history even though we, given that we are very forgetful, have forgotten our very recent worst times. We have forgotten that as recently as early 2015 we were under siege, terrorists had taken over parts of our country and made life miserable for many of us. I daresay there’s no one that does not know someone that knows someone that was in some way affected by the insurgency in the North-East. I lost a brother and know of many families that either lost a member or were completely wiped out!

While contributing to a debate on the sufferings of Nigerians, which some say are beyond imagination, I reminded that had Nigerians been given a choice between Boko Haram’s menace and hunger back then, many would have jumped at the latter. Some didn’t think I made any sense using the analogy (and I expect many more to come for my jugular for even thinking it). But the truth is we have made significant progress in our war on terror and that leaves us with one problem less.

There’s no denying that Nigeria’s economy is in real trouble but it is not insurmountable. It is true we must move on but it’s fact that we can’t just pretend that previous regimes did not cause it and the Jonathan regime particularly speeded the process up. Again, as many are wont to believe, by some policy choices the Buhari regime is not totally blameless especially in view of the fact that no clear picture has been given of the regime’s policy direction. But I will rather blame the president for allowing certain decisions to be forced on the regime especially through sustained blackmail in the media. I will cite examples.

On assumption of office the president reassured Nigerians that subsidy removal on petroleum products was out of the question. He argued that, if done, it was the ordinary people that would suffer because the prices would go up. But all sorts of criticisms and pressure followed his comments from all directions until he finally, albeit reluctantly removed subsidy and fuel pump price went up, thereby increasing the sufferings of the ordinary Nigerians. Yet the problems have yet to be solved. Independent marketers recently threatened to stop supplying fuel if the pump price was not hiked again.

Another policy flip-flop was the proposed payment of N5000 to unemployed Nigerians. It was clearly prone to crisis and abuse but the then opposition APC sold it to the electorate and the president, as the party’s candidate, repeatedly mimed it until it sank deep into everyone’s head. But the new regime soon backpedalled after realising it was walking itself right into a booby trap. But it only did that when it was too late. Many Nigerians won’t easily forgive or forget this ‘betrayal’.

In the run-up to the 2015 election international media like the Economist and Bloomberg endorsed candidate Buhari, even though some said it was with a heavy heart. So, when he won the campaign to get him to do the biddings of neo-liberal thinkers began in earnest. In addition to pilling up pressure on the president to remove fuel subsidy without any suggestions on how to cushion the effects they relentlessly called for further devaluation of the already devalued Naira. The president resisted until he couldn’t carry on.

Naira has been allowed to float – a nice synonym for devaluation – and each day since then it plunges deeper and deeper. President Buhari should have stood his ground. The logic behind devaluation is to boost export and discourage importation. Nigeria exports nothing but oil, which has since collapsed in value and quantity, and, so, devaluing the Naira makes no economic sense for now.

But now that the policy has failed to resuscitate the currency or halt its downward spiral the same mouthpieces that ‘blackmailed’ the regime into it have since switched to blame shifting, claiming it was belatedly implemented.
(To be concluded)