2011: Between Resolve and Reluctance

By Musa Aliyu
Monday, 13 December 2010 at 20:20

I am not a pessimist, although with the current chain of unpalatable happenings in Nigeria one does not have much choice as pessimism becomes the closest thing to reality. Around this time last year we had no president and no one could act as one in the absence of the incumbent. A constitutional crisis, deliberately created by a handful of greedy politicians, lingered while the country steadily ground to a halt. That crisis was only resolved when the president died months later and the vice president was, as constitutionally required, sworn-in. If anyone had hoped that was the end of the melodrama events preceding it and several ones afterward have, to say the least, given a lie to that delusion.

One of the biggest yet not so shocking revelations since the charade of April 2007 that saw another Peoples Democratic Party government imposed is the realisation that we had been saddled with a government that was doomed to fail - a sickly president, who was bound to be incompetent, and a politically naive vice president, that has confessed his naivety to former US Ambassador Robin Sanders.

In the trove of cables leaked by Wikileaks recently, which has incidentally confirmed even America’s vulnerability in an increasingly changing and rapidly globalised world, Nigeria featured prominently. And, again, for the wrong reasons it made news headlines in some of the world’s most respected media. The exposé, if anything, further validates our awareness of the obvious. That Shell’s boss bragged about the extent and manner of the multinational oil company’s grip on our country does not shock most Nigerians, albeit it smacks of utter contempt! Yet, we brought it upon ourselves.

Not that I care about zoning a hoot; I, however, find the debate about who becomes Nigeria’s next president on the basis of zoning irking. Here’s an issue, least of all worries, dominating discourses within and even outside of the country. But nowhere, not even in the media, is there any serious talk about competence; the most important factor. From the incumbent to all other candidates no one is asking what each candidate has got to show for all the years they are or were in power. Ordinarily, the coveted trophy would be President Jonathan’s to lose if only he had done things differently since he stepped in. But he toed the line and, like his predecessors, brazenly mocked his country and people.

Much more annoying is the ruling People Democratic Party’s (PDP) arrogance. Though, they are successfully exposing themselves as the biggest fraud yet seen by Nigerians. Their handling of the zoning issue and the mudslinging between their two main camps betray their disdain for Nigerians; they conclude that the general elections are won and lost at their primaries. Truly, there is history to cite as reference but they cannot rewrite it. Graphic pictures of how they bullied their way to victory and conscripted much of the judiciary into a cheerleading role are glued to our memory. But again, we, by timidly accepting their verdict, brought all this upon ourselves. And, if all that has happened cannot now joggle us back to soberness, I don’t know what else can.

The much talked about 2011 polls are at the door but there is little cause to be optimistic. The opposition is in disarray as always. The electorate are largely unenlightened and emasculated. The electoral body, Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), despite having the astute and thorough Professor Attahiru Jega as its boss has had a faulty start already. The media are polarised and, therefore, compromised. There is simply nothing to hang on to as a tonic for hope, except our imagination that it will be alright.

Lately, to sweeten the mind, we began deluding ourselves that either General Muhammad Buhari who’s hoping to contest under the platform of the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) or the Action Congress of Nigeria’s (ACN) Malam Nuhu is the candidate to beat. The reality on ground, however, suggests otherwise. The last time I checked the PDP still has a much larger share of states under any single political party’s control. Governors have, over the years, hugely transformed politics into a game of anything but fairness. As the chief executives they make sure no other political party thrives under their nose. General Buhari quite remembers his very recent experience in Bayelsa State.

In a normal democracy and where polls are held freely and fairly any of the opposition parties has a reasonable chance of winning. But our brand of democracy is a fraud. Despite swelling their ranks with decamping PDP members there is no strong evidence that, at the minute, either the ACN or the CPC is capable of constituting any real threat to the PDP. What none of the opposition parties is seriously pursuing is how to defeat the PDP at their own doorstep and in their own game. People are doubtlessly tired of the same old wine repeatedly put in a new bottle and would not mind a complete change.

The long awaited alliance between the ACN and CPC needs to be agreed and plans fashioned to take on the PDP headlong. If, however, this does not happen and either of the opposition candidates thinks he can successfully go it alone then he is mistaken. At the very best each will make isolated impacts in some parts of the country and still be unable to unseat the ruling party. We would then have four more years to worry about callous pilfering and ridiculous clowning that have characterised the system.