by Aliyu O Musa on Monday, 17 January 2011 at 22:01
An unprecedented wind of change is now blowing across the Arab world and power is being swept off the feet of unrepentant dictators. The ordinary people, the downtrodden of the society, are taking their destiny into their hand and reshaping it according to their taste and needs. Tunisia’s dictator for 23 years, Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali, is the first to make a giant tumble from Olympus courtesy of the now famous people’s revolution and many more may follow, sooner than later.
In the dying days of Nigeria’s Second Republic a monster that went by the name National Party of Nigeria (NPN) had perfected its rigging expertise to the point that it irreverently took the battle to opposition strongholds and vanquished them. Unknown to it, however, it was dialectically weeding itself out of power and into the trash bin of history. Or so we thought.
A principal outcome, yet one of the ugliest, of our experience under military dictatorship is the emergence of a new class of stupendously wealthy power brokers. And because politics in Nigeria is not as much a game of figures as it is one of money the former military dictators now appointed themselves custodians of our democracy and decide who becomes what and when. At the beginning of the Third Republic another monster they created and, today, it is the main medium via which politicians are imposed on us, in spite of our choice; our destiny is remoulded not for our benefit but for those in power and their friends in or out of power, home or abroad; our future is mortgaged irrespective of how badly we feel about this etc. That monster is the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) – the so-called biggest political party in Africa and an assembly of agents of imperialism.
The PDP has had its fill all at our expense and in utter abuse of our collective tolerance and generosity. Between Chief Olusegun Obasanjo, on the one hand, and the late Umar Musa Yar’Adua and Goodluck Ebele Jonathan, on the other, they have had almost 12 years of arrogant ‘rulership’ and banditry. In civilised societies, when a party has been in power for an extended period of time and becomes too arrogant, it gets shown the way out, usually by the power of the ballot. In some extreme cases, the ‘Ben Ali’ option becomes highly inevitable.
In my last piece on this 2011 issue I mentioned that the coveted trophy of the polls was GEJ’s to lose. The situation has not changed considerably except that the incumbent president’s subscription to divisive politics and shunning of all voices of reason is an ill wind that will blow no good to either him or his party. At the moment it’s not clear what will happen after the elections in April. If GEJ wins it will not be because he has done anything particularly genius or exceptional to deserve it. And even then he would only breast the tape badly bruised and limping. If he loses it will be because he has failed to listen to the cries of his people across the land.
On assumption of office last year he had the goodwill of all, save for a few discontented politicians who feared losing certain privileges. He had inherited an amnesty programme, although controversial, through which it was hoped the crisis in the Niger Delta would be resolved conclusively. Up until now the situation remains as precarious as ever. In a desperate gamble the military are continuously used to terrorise the innocent. It is still a wonder that his honeymoon with some ex-militants has endured. Or is it the largesse that is keeping the romance seemingly intact?
Security in the country has seriously declined as religious extremists, ethnic bigots, kidnappers, armed and highway robbers, assassins and even bombers take control of little, little enclaves and collectively hold the nation and everybody in it hostage. Take the issue of Jos as an example and contrast its handling to the Obama/McCain response to the US economic crisis in 2008. At the peak of their campaign it was shockingly realised the American banks badly needed a bailout and it seemed unlikely to be easily agreed. John McCain, then the Republican flag bearer, immediately suspended his campaign and proceeded to Washington to shore up support for the bailout. Although President Barack Obama, the candidate for the Democrats then, did not suspend his campaign he pledged to multitask in order to give equal amount of support. In the aftermath of the series of bombings in the troubled Jos on Christmas Eve last year Mr Jonathan’s response was as wobbly as his previous promise to make the violence in the city the last of its kind. Then came another explosion in Abuja barely a week after those in Jos, killing innocent people and our president is yet to find an answer. He, instead, went about his campaign, casually wishing away the problems while blaming it all on Islamic militants. This was the same president that, rather than appropriately act, refuted the MEND claim to being behind similar explosions in Abuja on October 1, 2010. If GEJ can not handle the hideous Jos crisis, is unable to address the Niger Delta issue appropriately, does not have the capacity to respond to the ruthless kidnappings in the South East etc. one wonders if he has any clue on how to deal with the hydra headed Boko Haram monster.
From an impeccable source I heard that Boko Haram will soon be targeting prominent Muslims in government and the government is aware of the hit list. Rather than being genuinely proactive they have resorted to secrete negotiations with the group. Meanwhile, the same government is putting the lives of other ‘less important’ Nigerians at risk by not tackling or even negotiating with the group to get them to stop attacking and killing innocent people.
In the run up to the polls in April it is not unlikely that the whirlwind reshaping the Arab would abrade Northern Nigeria and the most likely first casualties could be politicians that have taken advantage of people’s assumed gullibility. With the mass protests that greeted the outcome of PDP’s presidential primary in some Northern states, it is manifest that some prominent politicians are facing real threats and could lose their seats. And the biggest gainers are opposition politicians from the region like Gen (rtd) Muhammadu Buhari, Malam Nuhu Ribadu and Gov Ibrahim Shekarau. However, there is a danger of splitting votes amongst them and some acting as spoilers while GEJ emerges winner. This will, again, depend on how well he plays his wild cards, if he has any, between now and April. A greater danger is if he, as was previously the case, opts to rely on PDP’s notorious rigging proficiency. This could inflame the tense situation in the North and make the ‘Ben Ali’ option happen much sooner than expected. And the PDP monster would, like its doppelganger NPN, be tamed and put out of action, at least for now. The biggest worry of all is whether, if this comes to be the only way out, it would not lead to an implosion. Again, it all remains to be seen and will depend on the general temperament.
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